scuola keynesiana

Introductio

L'economia di Keynes

Keynesianeconomicswasborninthe1930s.Itsappearanceisnotaccidental,buthasitscomplicatedandprofoundeconomicroots.Itisadirectproductofthe"GreatDepressionofthe1930s."

BeforetheemergenceandspreadofKeynesianeconomics,thedominanteconomicswastraditionaleconomicsrepresentedbyMarshall,A.C.Pigouandothers.Veblenfirstusedtheterm"neo-classical"todescribeMarshalleconomicsin1900.Later,economicsgenerallyacceptedthefixedmeaningsof"neo-classicalschool"and"neo-classicaleconomics"asMarshall,Pigouandothersandtheireconomics.

Keynesianeconomicscriticizedtheemploymenttheoryinneoclassicaleconomics,inheritedthemercantiliststateintervention,Malthus’seffectivedemandisinsufficient,andMendeville’shighconsumptionpromotesprosperitytheoryandHobson’sThedoctrineofexcessivesavingleadstounemploymentandeconomicdepression.

Biographia

JohnMaynardKeyneswasbornonJune5,1883inCambridge,England.HisfatherwasanearlydiscipleofMarshall,andhismotherwasasenatorandmayorofCambridge.

Inhisteenageyears,KeyneshadoutstandingmathematicsscoresandwonanEatonScholarshipattheageof14.In1902,hewassenttoNewcastleCollegetostudymathematics.InMarch1909,Keynes'sthesis"ProbabilityTheory"waspassedsmoothly.Afterrevision,itwaspublishedin1921.

In1908,KeyneshiredMarshallasalecturerineconomics.In1911,attherecommendationofMarshall,28-year-oldKeynesbecametheeditor-in-chiefofTheJournalofEconomics.ThismagazineisaquarterlyjournaloftheRoyalEconomicSociety.Keyneshasbeeninchargeofthismagazineformorethan30yearsandhaswrittenmanyarticlesforit.

In1913,India’seconomicproblemswereveryserious."India'sCurrencyandFinance"publishedthisyearbyKeyneswashisfirsteconomicbook.Asaresult,hebecameamemberoftheRoyalIndianCurrencyandFinanceCommitteeandparticipatedinimportantgovernmentwork.

In1914,theFirstWorldWarbrokeout.Soon,KeynesjoinedtheMinistryofFinancethisyear,andhismainresponsibilitywastodealwithfinancialissuesbetweentheAlliedcountries.In1919,heservedasthechiefrepresentativeoftheBritishMinistryofFinancetoattendtheParisPeaceConference,andattendedthesemi-finalmeetingasaconsultant.In1925,KeynesmarriedLydiaLubokova,aRussianballerinawhofledtoEngland.TheyhavebeentoRussiaseveraltimes.

Keynes'sresearchoneconomicissuesinitiallyfocusedonmonetarytheory.In1923,Keynespublished"MonetaryReformTheory",whichheeditedandcompiledaseriesofarticlespublishedinnewspapersin1922,mainlydiscussingpost-wareconomicpolicies.Keynes'sotherbookonthetheoryofmoneyisthetwo-volume"OnMoney"publishedin1930.Thefirstvolumeofthisbookisthepuretheoryofmoney,andthesecondvolumeistheappliedtheoryofmoney.WhatKeyneschallengedtraditionaleconomicswashisthirdbook:"Employment,Interest,andInflation"(referredtoas"GeneralTheory")."GeneralTheory"wasconceivedaftertheoutbreakoftheGreatDepressioninthe1930sandcameoutin1936.

ShortlyafterthepublicationofTheGeneralTheory,Keynessufferedfromaheartattack.Sincethen,hehasnotwrittenalot.In1937,hepublishedanarticle"GeneralTheoryofEmployment",explainingthebasiccontentofhisemploymenttheory.In1940,Keynespublishedapamphlet"HowtoRaiseWarExpenses",whichwasawartimefinancialplanheproposedfortheChancelloroftheExchequer,anditwasverypopular.

Mense Iunio anno 1942 factus est dominus.

Die Aprill21,1946,Keynesdiedsuddenlyofa heart oppugnatio.

Views

ThecoreofKeynes'seconomicpolicyviewsistoopposelaissez-faireandadvocatestateintervention.

TheexpansionofgovernmentfunctionsreferredtobyKeynesmainlyreferstotheexpansionofthegovernment'sfunctionsofregulatingconsumptionpropensityandinvestmentinducement.Thepurposeofadjustingthepropensitytoconsumeistostimulateconsumption.Regulatinginvestmentinducementsisaimedatstimulatinginvestment.Effectivedemandiscomposedofconsumerdemandandinvestmentdemand.Stimulatingconsumptionandinvestmentmeansstimulatingeffectivedemand.

Keynesalsopointedoutthatthesmartestwayforthegovernmentistodoatwo-prongedapproach.Ontheonehand,thesocietycontrolstheinvestmentrateandincreaseinvestment;ontheotherhand,itraisesthepropensitytoconsumeandincreasesconsumption.However,Keynesemphasizedthatweshouldnotfocustoomuchonincreasingconsumption,butoninvestment.

Tostimulateconsumptionandinvestment,monetarypolicyandfiscalpolicycanbeadopted.Keynespointedoutthatitisdifficulttorelyonmonetarypolicyalone,andfiscalpolicyshouldmainlybeused.Regardingfiscalpolicy,Keynesdisagreedwiththeviewthattraditionaleconomicsmaintainsthebalanceofthenationalbudget,butpointedoutthatdeficitfinanceisbeneficial.Regardingmonetarypolicy,Keynesdisagreedwiththeviewthattraditionaleconomicsmaintainsastabledomesticpricelevel,butpointedoutthatmoderateinflationisharmless.

Progressus

NewKeynesianSchool

(1) OriginandProgressusofNewKeynesianSchool

1.OriginalKeynesianismandNewKeynesianism

Keynesianismhasbeeninthemainstreameconomicspositionforalongtimeinthefieldofmacroeconomics.However,sincethelate1960sandearly1970s,Keynesianismhasbeencriticizedbytheopposingschoolsofliberaleconomicsforfailingtoexplainthephenomenonofstagflation.Keynesianismwasincapableofcopingwiththechallengesofrealityandtheoryandfellintoapredicament,fallingfromthethroneofmainstreamorthodoxeconomics.Theideologicaltrendofeconomicliberalismsweptthemacroeconomicfield,andKeynesianismwasdeclining.TheemergenceofNewKeynesianismbroughtKeynesianismoutofitspredicament.

2.ThetheoreticalbackgroundoftheformationofNewKeynesianism

TheobjectiveconditionsfortheemergenceofNewKeynesianismarethetheoreticalflawsoftheoriginalKeynesianismandtheineffectivenessofneoclassicalmacroeconomicsinexplainingpracticalproblems.Lack.

ThedeficienciesoftheoriginalKeynesandthetheoreticalprogressofneoclassicalmacroeconomicshavegivenusefulenlightenmenttothenewKeynesians.Neo-KeynesianismwasformedaftertheoriginalKeynesianismwashitbyneoclassicalmacroeconomicsandlearnedfromtheexperienceandlessonsofthestrugglebetweenKeynesianismanditsopposingschools,andithascontinuedtodevelopinthestruggleagainstneoclassicalmacroeconomics.ItistheoriginalKeynesianism.Revival.

3.Hypotheses andcharacteristicsofNewKeynesianism

Thenon-market-clearinghypothesisisthemostimportanthypothesisofNewKeynesianism.ThishypothesiscomesfromtheoriginalKeynesianism.However,thereisamajordifferencebetweenthetwonon-marketclearingtheories.TheassumptionsofNewKeynesianismare:

(1)Assumingthatwagesandpricesaresticky,thatis,wagesandpricescannotbeadjusted,butcanbeadjusted,buttheadjustmentisveryslowandtakesaconsiderableamountoftime.

(2)ThenewKeynesianmodeladdstwoassumptionsthatwereignoredbytheoriginalKeynesianmodel:oneistheprincipleofmaximizingeconomicparties,andtheotherisrationalexpectations.

ThecharacteristicofNewKeynesianeconomicsisthatitdeniestheneoclassicaldichotomyandbelievesthattheeconomyisanon-Walrasianequilibrium,andactualincompletenessisimportant.

(2) NewKeynesianpricestickinesstheory

NewKeynesianpricestickinesstheorycanbedividedintotwocategories:oneisnominalpricestickiness;theotherisactualpricestickiness.

1.Nominalpricestickinesstheory

(1) Menucosttheory

Therearemanyliteraturesonmenucosttheory,amongwhichtherepresentativetheoriesare:menucostandBusinesscycletheory;approximaterationalbusinesscyclemodel;actualrigidityandcurrencynon-neutraltheory,etc.

(2) Staggeredpriceadjustmenttheory

Thestaggeredadjustmenttheorybelievesthatinanimperfectlycompetitivemarket,inordertomaximizeprofits,manufacturersusuallyadjustpricesinastaggeredratherthansynchronizedmanner.

2.Actualpricestickinesstheory

TheactualpricestickinesstheoryofNewKeynesianism,inadditiontothe"actualrigidityandcurrencynon-neutraltheory"mentionedabove,alsoincludes:Reputationtheory,demandasymmetrytheory,input-outputtabletheory,oligopolymarketandpricestickinesstheory.

(3) NewKeynesianlabormarkettheory

ThenewKeynesianlabormarkettheoryovercomesthefatalflawsofKeynesianismandmaintainsthekeynesiancreedofnon-clearlabormarket.ThekeyassumptionoftheNewKeynesianlabormarkettheoryisthestickinessofwages,whichcanbesummedupintotwocategories:oneisthetheoryofnominalwagestickiness;butthetheoryofrealwagestickiness.

1.NominalWageStickinessTheory

TherepresentativetheoriesofNewKeynesiannominalwagestickinessinclude:staggeredadjustmentwagetheoryandlong-termlaborcontracttheory.

2.Realwagestickinesstheory

NewKeynesianismhasmanytheoriesaboutrealwagestickiness,anditstypicaltheoriesare:implicitcontracttheory,efficiencywagetheoryandinside-outsidertheory.

Theimpliedcontracttheoryincludestheopeninformationimpliedcontracttheoryandtheasymmetricinformationimpliedcontracttheory.Themaincontentofefficiencywagetheoryincludesthefollowingthreeaspects:efficiencywagesandlabormarket;themicro-foundationofefficiencywages;efficiencywagesandunemployment.Unemploymentlagtheoryalsoincludesthreeaspects:wageadjustmentsforpureinsiders;wageadjustmentsunderpressurefromoutsiders;persistenceofunemploymentandwageadjustments.

(4) Novus-Keynesiantheoryofcreditrationing

Thenew-KeynesiantheoryofcreditrationingstartsfromtheasymmetryofinformationinthecreditmarketanddiscussesthattheselectioneffectofinterestratesandloanmortgageswillleadtoIfcreditrationingoccursinthecreditmarket,thecreditmarketwillfail,andgovernmentinterventionwillhaveapositiveeffect.

1.Theselectioneffectofinterestratesandcreditrationing

Therearetwooptionsforinterestrates,oneispositiveselection,andtheotherisnegativeselection.

Thepositiveselectioneffectofinterestratesmeansthatanincreaseininterestratescanincreasetheincomeofbanks,anditisthedirectimpactofinterestratesonbankincome.Interestratesalsoprovideincentivesformanufacturersandcanchangetheirattitudestowardsrisks.

Banksusethereverseselectioneffectofinterestratesasatestwittoidentifythedegreeofrarerisksofmanufacturersandtheriskoflendingtodifferentmanufacturers.

Theoptimalbankinterestrateisusuallynotequaltotheinterestratewhenthemarketclears.Therefore,rationingoccursinthecreditmarket.Theappearanceofrationinginthecreditmarketistheresultofbanks'selectioneffectsbasedoninterestratesinthefreecreditmarket,andtheresultofactingrationallyinordertoachievethegoalofprofitmaximization.Itisnotaproductofstateintervention.

2.Theselectioneffectandcreditrationingofloancollateral

Loancollateralhasapositiveselectioneffectandareverseselectioneffect.Theformermeansthatwhenthereisexcessdemandinthecreditmarket,banksincreasethereliabilityofloanrepaymentbyincreasingthelevelofloancollateral,reducetheriskofbaddebts,andincreasebankincome.Atthesametime,italsosuppressesborrowers'demandforloans.Thelatterreferstotheincreaseinthelevelofloancollateralwillincreasetheriskofloansandreducethereliabilityofrepayment.Thebankcandeterminethebestcollaterallevelbasedonthesetwo.

TheNewKeynesiantheoryofcreditrationingpointsoutthatsinceinterestratewitandrationingwitworkatthesametimeinthecreditmarket,thecreditmarketwillhavemultipleequilibriumsandmarketmechanismswillfail.Governmentinterventioncancorrectmarketfailures.

(5) TheNewKeynesianSchool'sPolicyPropositions

1.TheNewKeynesianPricePolicy

ThemainthrustoftheNewKeynesianpricepolicyproposalsistorestrainPricestickinessmakespricesmoreflexibletorepairmalfunctioningmarketmechanismsandstabilizetotaloutput.TheNewKeynesiansputforwardsimilarpolicyrecommendationsinthestaggeredadjustmentpricetheoryandthemenucosttheory.Bothofthesepolicyrecommendationsadvocatetheuseofpolicyinterventiontocoordinatethebehaviorofeconomicagentsandcorrectmarketfailures.Theyarebasicallycorrect,buttheylackoperability.

2.NewKeynesianemploymentpolicy

ThenewKeynesianlaborwagetheoryexplainswagestickinessandunemploymentonthebasisofmicroeconomics,andputsforwardanumberofissuesconcerningwageemploymentPolicy.Thesepolicyrecommendationsmainlyfocusontheoriessuchastheinside-outsidertheoryandtheinterlacedlaborcontracttheory.

TheemploymentpolicyofNewKeynesianismstillincreaseswageflexibilityandreducesunemployment.Itspolicythinkingisreasonable,butithasastrongidealcolor,anditisdifficulttoimplementinpractice.Thegovernmentintervenesinlaborcontracts,whichisnotfeasibleincapitalistcountries.

3.NewKeynesianmonetarypolicyandcreditpolicy

(1) Monetarypolicy

NewKeynesianpointedoutthatinordertoachievethegoalofstableoutputThemostappropriatemonetarypolicyforthegovernmentis:theadjustmentofthemoneymarketisadaptedtotheactualdisturbancethataffectstheprice,andactsintheoppositedirectiontothenominaldisturbancethatcausespricechanges.However,theimpactofthesetwopoliciesonemployeesisdifferent.Theformermeansthatwhenoutputisstable,employeewagesarenotstable,whilethelattermeansthatwhenoutputisstable,employeewagesarerelativelystable.

(2) CreditPolicy

TheNewKeynesiancreditpolicyrecommendationisthatthegovernmentshouldstartfrommaximizingsocialwelfareandinterveneinthecreditmarket.Useloansubsidiesorprovidecreditguaranteestoreducemarketinterestratessothatprojectswithsocialbenefitscanobtainloans.

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