1862 French doctor, economist Cjuglar in "Commercial crisis in France, United Kingdom and the United States and cycle" The first proposed. It is proposed that there is a period of 9 to 10 years of cycle fluctuations in the market economy. This medium-length economic cycle is generally referred to as "Zhu Gera Period", also known as "Zhu Gera".
Zhu Gela is beginning to pay attention to economic things in studying population, marriage, birth, death and other statistics. He believes that there is a crisis or panic is not an independent phenomenon, but one of the three stages of socio-economic movement. These three phases are prosperous, crisis and depression. Repeated appearance of the three phases form a cycle. He also pointed out that the crisis seems to be a social phenomenon in developed industrial and commercial, in some extent, which can be foreseen or taking some measures to mild, but not fully suppressed. He believes that politics, war, agriculture, and factors such as climate deterioration are not the main roots of cycle fluctuations, they can only increase economic deterioration trends. Cycle fluctuations are automatic phenomena, with people's behavior, savings habits, and their use of available capital and credit use.
The Zhu Gera cycle is generally seen from the proportion of GDP. Investment in equipment, in the name of GDP, and 2 years of investment income first index (investment income refers to the profit margin before the total capital payment, simply, the yield from the company will reduce interest debt interest rate or finance Cost) Conduct comparison, it can be seen that the trend of investment income indicates that equipment investment accounts for GDP.
1. Zhugra period
French economist Zhu Gera (C Juglar) published the book "French, UK and the US Business Crisis and its cycle" book, proposed that there is 9 in the capitalist economy To 10 years of cycle fluctuations, it is generally called "Zhugracy cycle". This belongs to the cycle of medium length, so that the medium cycle.
2. Kiqin cycle
J. Kitchen proposed a period of 40 months (3 to 4 years) in 1923, which is a small cycle. Also known as "kiqin cycle".
3. Kandrakiyev cyplus
Russian economist Kandrajev (N · D · CODRULIEF) proposed a cycle of 50-60 years in the capitalist economy in 1925, said " The Cantra Sciier, also known as a long cycle.
4. Kuznets cycle1930, US economist Cuznets proposed a cost-related economic cycle related to housing construction, which is 20 years. This is also a long cycle, known as the "Kuznets" cycle, also known as the construction period.
5. Institutional release cycle
Social transformation cycle, this cycle is about 30 years. After the war, the Japanese economy began in the late 1950s, with an annual average GDP increased by 6.5%, until the beginning of the 1990s, and the per capita GDP is equivalent to 90% of the United States. The process lasted about 30 years, and eventually enabled Japan's successfully transformation into a world-famous economy. Asia "Four Small Dragons" is developed from traditional capitalist countries (regions) to emerging industrialized countries (regions), economic growth mode transformation, social form transformation is supplemented, and it is called quasi-transformation. This process starts since 1965, last 30 years, will also enter the recession. After 20 years of rapid development, the Chinese economy will still be a unique, mainly due to the power of institutional release in the social transformation.