Speculative capital flow


Speculative Capital Mobile (2 photos)

Speculative Capital Flow is to use various speculators to use the international financial market Differential differences and forecasts for the trend of the market, speculative activities are made by short-term capital flows caused by expected profits. If the speculator predicts accurate and can seize the opportunity; otherwise it will be lost.

causes factors

(1) Specific foreign exchange trading using the market exchange rate. It can be divided into two situations:

Speculative capital flow

1. When a country's balance of payments, the country's currency exchange rate will temporarily fall, and the speculators predict that this exchange rate has temporarily. Soon, I will rebounded, so I bought the currency according to the lower exchange rate (meaning the capital flow of the country). After the payment rate rises, it will be sold according to the higher exchange rate (meaning the capital output); contrary, a country's international payment The temporary surplus, the country's currency exchange rate will be temporarily rising, and the speculators sell the national currency according to the higher exchange rate (meaning the country's capital flow), and the payment rate is fell and then pressed by lower exchange rate (ie capital inflow) . This speculative capital flow can shrink the exchange rate fluctuation, and ultimately make the exchange rate tend to stabilize.

The country's currency exchange rate will continue to be strong when the country's currency exchange rate is sustained, and the speculator expects the country's currency to appreciate, so it is sold to the national currency. This speculative capital flow enables the extension fluctuation amplitude (accelerating the process of currency depreciation or accelerating currency appreciation), so that the exchange rate is more unstable.

(2) Use the change of interest rates or the difference in country interest rates, and the capital from the low interest rate is low in interest rates to high interest rates. The premise of this capital flow is that the two countries have a stable exchange rate, that is, the capital flows in the premise of excuse risk to earn interest rates.

(3) Use changes in securities prices in the international financial market to mobilize short-term foreign exchange funds, participate in securities trading, and buy your own profits.

In addition, the change of gold prices and changes in the price of international commodities can also be engaged in short-term capital flow of speculative short-term capital. In the former, such as speculators use certain political events or certain currency possible appreciation, depreciation and other rumors, use speculative capital to impact the gold market, and sell some kind of currency to buy gold or sell gold in exchange for some currency, smash or press the gold price, profit from it. The latter, such as speculators, according to the price of important products, low-priced buy and sell high-priced, or throws low-cost rewards, earning speculative profits.


Speculative capital flow can also include the following four specific methods:

1) Under the exchange of foreign exchange, use currency to seek higher income Capital flow. For example, under the premise of exchange rate stability, governments increase the short-term capital flow attracted by the discount rate in order to improve the balance of payments, they are such.

2) The capital flow of the temporary exchange rate changes, which includes two cases: one is the exchange rate of the existence of temporary balance of payments in a country, due to speculators expected This currency exchange rate will soon rebound soon, so buy the country's currency, causing short-term capital to the country; second, a temporary surplus occurred in a country, and the result is just the opposite, which will lead to the country.

3) Predicting the exchange rate will have a capital flow of permanent changes, that is, when the speculator expects to continue to fall, it will throw this currency, resulting in capital flow, but in turn, The speculator expects that the currency exchange rate will continue to rise, and the currency will be bought, resulting in capital inflow. This capital flow will exacerbate the turmoil of the international financial market.

4) The flow of speculative capital associated with trade, that is, the "super" and "post", that is, people think that the currency value is about to adjust and accelerate or delay the process of foreign exchange to compete for the transaction. The exporter requires customers to pay the payment as soon as possible or allow customers to pay the loan according to the estimation of a particular monetary value in the future.

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