Paul Krugman

Characterexperience

PaulKrugman,borninLongIsland,NewYorkin1953,receivedadoctoratefromMITin1977,andtaughtatYale,MIT,andStanfordUniversitysuccessivelyIn1991,theyoungKrugmanwontheClarkPrizeoftheAmericanEconomicAssociation,whichisregardedasanimportantindicatoroftheNobelPrize;in2000,hewasappointedProfessorofEconomicsintheSchoolofPublicAffairsandInternationalAffairsatPrincetonUniversity.

In1953,Krugmanwasbornintoamiddle-classAmericanfamily.HegrewupinthesuburbsofNewYork.AftergraduatingfromJohnF.KennedyHighSchool,hecametothefamousMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologytostudyeconomics.Incollege,Krugmanseemedtopreferhistory.Hedidn'ttakemanycoursesineconomics,buthewenttohistorycourseseveryday.However,itisgoldthatalwaysshines.

Inthesecondyearofcollege,thefamouseconomistNordhaus,afteraccidentallyreadinganarticlebyKrugmanonthepriceandconsumptionofgasoline,gavehimadeepunderstandingofeconomicissues.Impressed,heimmediatelyinvitedhimtobehisassistant.Aftergraduatingfromuniversity,undertherecommendationofNordhaus,Krugmannaturallyenteredthegraduateschoolforadoctorate.Duringthisperiod,duetopersonalproblems,hismoodwasrelativelylow.Afterfinishinghisdoctoraldissertationhastily,herushedtoteachatYaleUniversity.

KrugmanalsohadnoambitionsatYaleUniversity.Becauseofhisstrongpersonality,heoffendedmanypeopleandevenlosthisgraduatescholarship.

PaulRobinKrugmanattendedtheevent(11photos)

In1978,hewenttovisitthefamouseconomistDornBush("MacroeconomicsAuthorof"Learning"),Dornbush’sencouragementhelpedhimregainhisself-confidence,andhefoundthathehadfoundthekeytoopeningthedoortosuccess.Hebegantowriteapaperonthemonopolisticcompetitiontrademodel.InJulyofthatyear,hesubmittedthispapertothesummerseminaroftheNationalEconomicResearchBureau.Theparticipantsinthismeetingwerethemostinfluentialeconomistsintheworldatthattime.Whenhestartedtoreadthepaper,peopledidn'tpayattention,theywerealltalkingtoeachother.Gradually,thehallfellsilent,andpeoplestoppedtalkingandlistenedintentlytoKrugman'sspeech.Krugmanbecamefamousovernight!Krugmanrecalled:"Thatwasthebest90minutesofmylife."Inthefollowingdays,honorandmoneyfollowed,andKrugmanstartedflyingaroundtheworld,givingspeeches,andparticipating.Seminars,meetingallkindsofpeople.However,hekeptaclearheadandwasstilldevotedtoacademicresearchinadditiontobusysocializing.

In1982,KrugmanjustreturnedfromaninternationalconferenceinSwedenwhenhereceivedacallfromFeldstein,invitinghimtoworkinWashingtonasthechiefeconomistofinternationaleconomicsintheeconomicadvisorygroup.TheexperienceinWashingtonwasnotpleasant.Hefoundthatinthisplace,goodanalystsarenotreusable,butflatterersarejustlikefishinwater.Soon,hebecamebored,butinWashington,hediscoveredanothertalentofhisown:tellingseriouseconomicissuesinconciseandeasy-to-understandlanguage.The1983PresidentialEconomicReportwasauthoredbyKrugman.

Pursuingideals

AyearinWashingtonhasexhaustedKrugmanphysicallyandmentally.Foralongtime,heneitherdidacademicsnorpolitics.However,tooutsiders,hemixedupverywell:hebecameatenuredprofessoratayoungage,withageneroussalary,oftenflyingaroundtheworldtoattendvariousconferences,andevenwroteafewgoodpapers..However,Krugmanwasextremelydisappointed.Hesaid:"Comparedwith99%ofthepeopleintheworld,Ihavenothingtocomplainabout.Butmyreferenceobjectisthemostsuccessfuleconomistofmygeneration.IhavenotyetbecomeOneofthem."

In1987,Krugmanbegantoregainhiscreativity,hewrotealargenumberofhigh-qualitypapers-thethirdworlddebtrelief,theroleoftheEuropeanmonetarysystem,Tradecollectivization.Thepraiseforthesearticlesdispelledhisdoubtsabouthisresearchability,andhebegantoopenupanewfield-thenewtradetheory.TheseachievementsearnedhimtheJohnBatesClarkAward.

In1988,Krugmanpublishedthebook"TheAgeofDecliningExpectations",whichcausedasensationintheUnitedStatesassoonasitwaspublished.Heco-authored"InternationalEconomics"withObersfalderandbecamethestandardtextbookforuniversitiesandtradingcompanies.Afterseeinghisbook,thepresidentsofmajorcompaniescametothedoorandaskedKrugmanforbusinessconsultingforthem.Tothisend,Krugmanhiredabrokerspecifically,nottoattractmorecustomers,buttoincreasepricesanddiscouragemerchants.DuringthisperiodKrugmandiscoveredaninterestingsubject-economicgeography.Heambitiouslywantstodevelopthissubjectintoabranchofeconomicsandhasmadegreatprogressinthisfield.

Majorachievements

The1992presidentialelectionmadeKrugmanabighitinfrontofallAmericans.HiseconomicspeechonTVgaveClintonagreatHelp,butClintondidnotusehimasthepresident’seconomicadviserafterhetookoffice.Instead,hechoseTyson,afemaleeconomistatBerkeleyUniversity.ThereasonwasthatKrugman’scharacterwastooupright,whichwasoffendedinWashingtonandacademia.Fewpeople.Krugmanhimselfalsosaid:"Intermsofcharacter,Iamnotsuitableforthatkindofposition.Youhavetobeabletodealwithpeopleandplayhaha​​whenpeoplesaysillythings."Krugmanin1996Onceagainsurprisedtheworld,hisbook"PopularInternationalism"boldlypredictedtheAsianfinancialcrisis.Thebookwasreprinted8timesinjusttwoyears,withatotalof1.2millionprints.Atthesametime,Krugman'seconomicgeographyresearchhasmadesignificantprogress.ManypeopleineconomicshavealreadyassertedthatKrugmanwillwintheNobelPrizeinEconomicswithinthreeyears.

OnOctober13,2008,theNobelCommitteeoftheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciencesduetohis"analyticworkontradepatternsandpositioningofeconomicactivities"("forhisanalysisoftradepatternsandlocationofeconomicactivity")andannouncedthathewillbeawardedtheNobelPrizeinEconomicsin2008.TheoutbreakoftheAsianeconomiccrisismadeKrugmanthefocusofattention.ThefourtheditionofInternationalEconomics,co-authoredbyhimandObersfalder,hasalsobeentranslatedintoChineseandpublished.Inthefaceofhonor,whatdoesKrugmanthink?Hesaid:"Weallwantrights,andweareeagertosucceed,butforme,thebestrewardisthehappinessofunderstanding."

ResearchFields

InternationalTrade,InternationalFinance,CurrencyCrisisandExchangeRateChangeTheory.

WontheNobelPrize

The2008NobelPrizeinEconomicswasannouncedat19:00onOctober13,2008,Beijingtime.TheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciencesannouncedthatitwillawardthe55-year-oldAmericaneconomistPaulKrugmanthisyear'sNobelPrizeinEconomics.TheNobelPrizeCommitteeawardedhimtheawardspeechbecauseofhisanalysisoftradepatternsandpositioningofeconomicactivities.

In1953,Krugmanwasbornintoamiddle-classAmericanfamily.HegrewupinthesuburbsofNewYork.AftergraduatingfromJohnF.KennedyHighSchool,hecametothefamousMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologytostudyeconomics.AftergraduatingfromhisPh.D.,hewenttoteachatYaleUniversity.

In1982,hewenttoWashingtontoserveasthechiefeconomistofinternationaleconomicsintheeconomicadvisorygroup.Thenewinternationaltradetheoryhecreatedanalyzesandexplainstheimpactofincomegrowthandimperfectcompetitiononinternationaltrade.Histheoreticalthoughtsarefullofprimitiveness,andheoftennoticesimportanteconomicissuesbeforeothers,andthenbuildsimpressivelydeep,conciseandelegantmodels,awaitingfurtherresearchbyotherlatecomers.Heishailedasoneofthemosteye-catchingtradetheoristsintheworldtoday,andhisprophecyoftheAsianfinancialcrisisin1994hasmadehispositionontheinternationaleconomicstageeversohigh.

HewontheClarkPrize,knownasthe"LittleNobelPrize,"in1991.TheawardisanawardsetupbytheAmericanEconomicAssociationforyoungeconomiststorewardthemforThoughtsandknowledge"madeoutstandingcontributions.

Reasonsfortheaward

Krugmanwasawardedforhiscontributiontothestudyoffreetradeandglobalization.TheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciencesstatedthatKrugmancreatedandclarifiedasetofnewtheories.Toanswerquestionsrelatedtofreetrade.TheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciencessaidinitsawardstatement:"Whatistheimpactoffreetradeandglobalization?Whatarethedrivingforcesbehindurbanizationworldwide?PaulKrugmancreatedandclarifiedasetofnewtheoriesthatcananswerallofthese.Problems.”Thestatementalsoemphasized:“Hehasthereforefullyintegratedthepreviouslydisparateresearchfieldsofinternationaltradeandeconomicgeography.”TheNobelPrizeinEconomicsisalsothelastofthesixNobelPrizesthisyear,NobelEconomics.TheawardisnotoneofthefiveawardsmentionedinthewillofAlfredBernhard-Nobel,thefamousSwedishchemistandinventorofnitroglycerin,butitwasaddedbytheCentralBankofSwedenin1968tocommemorateNobel.Theawardwasawardedforthefirsttimein1969,anditsfullnameis"MemorialAlfred-NobelSwedbankEconomicScienceAward".

TheNobelCommitteeoftheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciencesannouncedtheawardofthe2008NobelPrizeinEconomicstotheAmericaneconomistandPrincetonUniversityprofessorPaulKrugman.Krugman'stheoreticalresearchfieldsaretradepatternsandregionaleconomicactivities.ThemythofPaulKrugmanKrugman(PaulKrugman)wasaprofessorofeconomicsattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyintheUnitedStates.

Inthe1990s,Krugmansuccessfullypredictedthe"1997AsianFinancialCrisis."Atthattime,heproposedthattheso-called"Asianmiracle"was"builtonfloatingsand,andsoonerorlaterdisillusioned."Specifically,duringtheboomingperiodofrapiddevelopment,Asiahasalreadylurkedadeepeconomiccrisisandwillenteralarge-scaleadjustmentwithinacertainperiodoftime.

Thesuccessfulverificationofthepredictionin1997establishedKrugman’sstatusasa"newgenerationofeconomicmasters."Accordingtothedata,PaulKrugmanisanewgenerationofliberaleconomics,andhisresearchfieldsmainlyfocusontradepatternsandregionaleconomicactivities.Thistime,PaulKrugman'svictoryhascausedanupsetthatisnotconsidereda"unpopular"inthe2008NobelPrizeinEconomicscompetition.

Inpreviouspredictionsfromallparties,Krugmanwasnotseeninthetopthreegroupsofpopularwinners.However,KrugmanisstilltherepresentativeofliberaleconomicsthattheNobelPrizeinEconomicshasalwaysfavored.Hisvictoryisstillthevictoryoftheliberaleconomictheoryschool.Italsocontinuesthe"tradition"oftheNobelPrizeinEconomicsthatfavorsAmericaneconomists.

Thespellreappears

TheNobelCommitteeoftheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciencesannouncedthatthe2008NobelPrizeinEconomicswasawardedtotheAmericaneconomistandPrincetonUniversityprofessorPaulKrugman(PaulKrugman).Krugman).Inthe1990s,Krugmansuccessfullypredictedthe"1997AsianFinancialCrisis"andestablishedKrugman'sstatusasa"newgenerationofeconomicmasters."Whentheglobalfinancialcrisisissweepingtheworldthistime,itisundoubtedlymoremeaningfulforKrugmantoobtainaNobeleconomist.

The"magiccurse"ofeconomicsprizesreappears.TheWallStreetJournaloncesaid,"PredictingtheNobelEconomicsPrizeisnotoriouslydifficult."Thefinalselectionresultsofthisyear'sEconomicsAwardsonceagainverifiedthissentence.Althoughthemediaandcelebritiespreviouslylistedthelistofdigitaleconomistswhoareexpectedtowin,theystillfailedtoincludethefinalwinners.

Accordingtotheusualpractice,ThomsonReutershasproposedthreesetsofpredictionlistsforthe2008NobelPrizeinEconomics:UniversityofChicagoprofessorLarsHanson,NewYorkUniversityprofessorThomasSargentandPrincetonUniversityprofessorChristopherSims,becauseofhisuseofeconometricsandothercomplexeconomictheoriestopredicttheactualsecuritiesmarket,UCLAprofessorsArmenAlchianandHaroldDemsetz,becauseoftheirForhiscontributiontointellectualpropertytheory,HarvardUniversityprofessorMartinFeldstein,whowasthechairmanoftheUSPresident’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers,isduetohisresearchresultsinthefieldoftaxationandsocialsecurity.ButthebirthofPaulKrugmanhasundoubtedlyprovedonceagainthe"curse"oftheNobelPrizeinEconomics.

Financialcrisis"achievement"NobelPrize

The"blackmouth"ProfessorKrugmanineconomicssucceededItispredictedthattheAsianmodelcannotbemaintained,andamidtheapplauseofthefourAsiantigers,theEastAsianmodeliswarnedthattherewillbeacrisis.

Beforethe1997Asianfinancialcrisis,Krugmanpublished"TheReturnofDepressionEconomics",whichcanbesaidtobeanaccurateprediction,andKrugmanalsogainedfameasaresult.OnMarch17,2008,heexpressedhisviewsonthecurrenteconomicsituationintheUnitedStatesinaninterviewwiththeAmericaneconomicmagazineFortune.Hesaidthatduetotheeconomicrecession,theJapaneseeconomyhasnotfullyrecoveredwithin10years."IamveryworriedthatthiswillhappenintheUnitedStates.ItisestimatedthattheUSeconomywillrecoverinmid-2010."Thissituationofstagnationwillcontinueforalongtime.Hesaidthatthedevelopmentoftherealestatemarketisstagnantandloansaredifficult,whichwillcauserealestatepricestocontinuetofallandfallintoaviciouscircle.Thiscrisismaybeasseriousasthefinancialcrisisofthelate1990sandthecrisisoftheearly21stcentury."Fromoneaspect,theintensificationoftheglobalfinancialcrisis"achieves"Krugman’sNobeldream.

KrugmanisknownasthebestwritingeconomistsinceKeynes.Heisalsooneofthemostfamouseconomistsofthenewgeneration.Inhisbook"RenaissanceofDepressionEconomy",Krugmandescribedthepurposeofdepressioneconomicsforus,thatis,thestudyof"freelunch"."Thereisnofree"Lunch",thisisthemostconcisesentenceineconomics.Itmeansthatresourcesarelimited.Ifyouwantmoreofonething,youmusthavelessofanotherthing.Thatistosay,thereisnogainwithoutpaying.ButintheGreatRecession"Aslongaswereachout,therewillbeafreelunch,becauseatthistimealargenumberofidleresourceswillbeuseful."Forthecurrentfinancialcrisissweepingtheworld,ProfessorKrugmansaidthatinordertopreventfinancialinstitutionsfromexperiencingproblems,theUSgovernmentshouldavoidinvestinglarge-scalerelieffunds,andthegovernmentshouldsellfinancialinstitutionsinatimelymannerafterusingbudgetfundstobuythem.WhetherGermancanbecomethe"savior"oftheglobalfinancialcrisis,wewillalsowaitandsee.

Publishingbooks

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Awardsexperience

• In1991,theAmericanEconomicAssociation,JohnBatesClarkMedal.Becauseitwasawardedtoonlyoneperson,everytwoOnceayear(before2009),EconomicsdescribedtheClarkMedalas“moredifficulttoobtainthantheNobelPrize”.

• 1992,researcherAmericanAcademyofArtsandSciences(AAAS).

• In1995,theAdamSmithAwardNationalAssociationforBusinessEconomics

• 1998,Ph.D.HonoraryDegreeinEconomicsattheFreeUniversityofBerlin,FreeUniversityofBerlininGermany

• In2000,theHCRecktenwaldPrizeinEconomicswasawardedbyErlandRoot-NurembergUniversityisinGermany.

• In2002,EditorandPublisher,columnistoftheyear.

• In2004,thePrinceofAsturiasFoundation(Spain),thePrinceofAsturiasPrizeinSocialSciences.

• In2004,DoctorofHumanitiesHonoraryDegree,HaverfordCollege

• In2008,Krugman'scontributiontotheNewTradeTheoryoftheNobelPrizeinEconomics.Hebecamethewinnerofthe12thJohnBatesClarkPrizeandwasawardedtheNobelMemorialPrize.

• In2012,honorarydoctoratefromUNIVERSIDADELisboa,UNIVERSIDADETECNICALisboaandNewUniversityofLisbon

• In2013,theDoctorofLaws,honorarydegreewasawardedtotheUniversityofToronto,Canada,Toronto,Canada

• 2014,Recipient'sJamesJoyceAwardfromtheLiteraryandHistoricalSociety(UniversityofDublin)inrecognitionofhisoutstandingcontributiontoeconomicscience.

• In2014,therecipientwasGreenTempletonCollege,JayalarGuestProfessorofEntrepreneurshipandDevelopmentatOxfordUniversity,TrinityPeriod2014,asatableZhanghashisoutstandinginternationalreputationinthedevelopmentofacademicandresearchintheeconomicandcommercialfields.

• In2016,DoctorofArts,honorarydegreeswereawardedtoOxfordUniversity,OxfordUniversity,UK

MajorWorks

RepresentativeWorks

"TheAgeofDecliningExpectations","TheMysteryoftheAsianMiracle","TheReturnofDepressionEconomics","PopularInternationalism","InternationalEconomics",""BigCrack","TheConscienceofaLiberal",etc.

Publishinginformation

"ReturnofDepressionEconomics",CITICPress,2012.

"SpaceEconomics:Cities,RegionsandInternationalTrade",EconomicsScientificTranslationLibrary,RenminUniversityofChinaPress,2005

"GeographyandTrade",InternationalEconomicsTranslationCollection,RenminUniversityofChinaPress,2000

"ExchangeRateInstability",InternationalEconomicsTranslationSeries,RenminUniversityofChinaPress,2000

"PopularInternationalism",InternationalEconomicsTranslationSeries,RenminUniversityofChinaPress,2000

"StrategicTradePolicyandInternationalEconomics",InternationalEconomicsTranslationCollection,RenminUniversityofChinaPress,2000

"KrugmanNewTheoryofInternationalTrade",ChinaSocialSciencePress,2001

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"MarketStructureandForeignTradePolicy-IncreasingReturns,ImperfectCompetitionandInternationalTrade",ShanghaiSanlianPublishingHouse,1993.(Flowingwater)

AcademicInsights

TheAsianfinancialturmoilhascausedtheworldtofacethecrisisofafull-scaleeconomicrecession,butfortheeconomistPaulKrugman,thisdisasterisSothathisacademicreputationreacheditspeak.In1994,amidtheoptimismoftheAsianeconomy,Krugman,aprofessorofeconomicsattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,wasastonishing.Hepublishedaspecialarticleinthebimonthlymagazine"ForeignAffairs",criticizingtheAsianmodelforfocusingonquantitativeexpansionandignoringtechnology.Innovation,theso-called"Asianmiracle"is"builtonfloatingsand,soonerorlaterdisillusioned."

InthedayswhentheAsianeconomyisfullofprosperity,ProfessorKrugman’sjudgmentsarelikediscordantsoundsinamovement,sharpandpiercing,causinganuproarintheworld.Thefinancialturmoilthreeyearslaterconfirmedhisuniqueinsightandestablishedhisstatusasanewgenerationofeconomicmasters.ProfessorKrugmanhaswontherespectoftheworldforhispropheticforesight.Now,whenthe45-year-oldeconomistwithareputationashighastheskyspeaks,itseemsthattheworldinthe"windandrain"willlistenattentivelytohisvoice.Asanewgenerationoftalentedliberaleconomics,ProfessorKrugmanisgoodatexpressingcomplicatedandboringeconomicissuestothepublicinsimple,wittyandwittywords.

Hecangrasptheessenceoftheproblemfromdifferentangles,transcendthemythsoftraditionaltheory,andenablestudentstodeeplyunderstandtheactualeconomicproblemsandfuturedevelopmenttrends."Heisalwaystwostepsaheadofothers","FortuneStar"magazineisfullofadmirationforhiscreativity.

Freetrade

Thetradepatternandthelocationofeconomicactivitiesininternationaltradeandeconomicgeographyhavealwaysbeenthefocusofeconomicdebate.Whatkindofeffectswillfreetradeandglobalizationhave?Whatarethedrivingforcesbehindglobalurbanization?PaulKrugmandevelopedanewtheorytoanswerthesequestions.Hethereforealsointegratedthepreviouslycompletelydifferentresearchfieldsininternationaltradeandeconomicgeography.Krugman’sresearchmethodisbasedonthepremisethatalargenumberofgoodsandservicescanbeproducedcontinuouslyandinacheaperwayforalongtime.Thisconceptisusuallycalledtheeconomyofscale(economiesofscale).Atthesametime,consumersaredemandingavarietyofsources,whichmakeslarge-scaleproductionintheworldmarketreplacetheoriginalsmall-scaleproductioninthelocalmarket.Intheprocessofmassproductionintheworldmarket,fiercecompetitionhasformedamongsimilarproductsproducedbycompaniesinthesameindustry.

Traditionaltradetheorybelievesthatduetodifferencesinvariouscountries,somecountriesexportagriculturalproducts,whileothersexportindustrialproducts.Thenewtheoryclarifieswhyglobaltradeisinfactdominatedbycountriesthatnotonlyhavesimilarconditions,butalsotradesuchproducts.Forexample,Swedenisacountrythatexportsalotofcarsandimportsalotofcarsatthesametime.Thiskindoftradehasledtotheemergenceofalargenumberofspecializedandlarge-scaleproducts,leadingtolowpricesanddiversificationofcommodities.

Theeconomiesofscaleandthereductionintransportationcostsalsohelpusexplainwhymoreandmorepeoplearoundtheworldliveincities,andwhysimilareconomicactivitiesareconcentratedinthesameplace.Lowtransportationcostscantriggeraself-reinforcingprocess,whilethegrowthoftheurbanizedpopulationalsopromotestheincreaseoflarge-scaleproduction,higherrealincome,andmorediversifiedsourcesofgoods.Thisresult,inturn,furtherstimulatesmigrationtocities.Krugman'stheoryshowsthattheresultsoftheseprocessescanwellhelptheglobalregiontobedividedintohigh-techurbanizationcoreareasandlessdevelopedsurroundingareas.Inthe1990s,Krugmansuccessfullypredictedthe"1997AsianFinancialCrisis."

Atthattime,heproposedthattheso-called"Asianmiracle"was"builtonfloatingsand,andsoonerorlaterdisillusioned."Specifically,duringtheboomingperiodofrapiddevelopment,Asiahasalreadylurkedadeepeconomiccrisisandwillenteralarge-scaleadjustmentwithinacertainperiodoftime.Thesuccessfulverificationofthepredictionin1997establishedKrugman'sstatusasthe"masterofthenewgenerationofeconomics".Atthesametime,Krugman'seconomicgeographyresearchhasmadesignificantprogress.ManypeopleineconomicshavealreadyassertedthatKrugmanwillwintheNobelPrizeinEconomicswithinthreeyears.

EconomicCrisis

KrugmanwinstheNobelPrize.Economiccrisispredictionshavebeenrepeatedlyfulfilled.WhatisquitedramaticisthatKrugman’sawardcomesfromhisanalysisofinternationaltradepatternsandeconomicactivities.Hisregionalachievements,andthewell-knownNewYorkTimescolumnistisbetterknownforhisharshlyworded"inverted"remarks.Inhiscolumnsandspeeches,KrugmancriticizedthepoliticalandeconomicpoliciesoftheBushadministrationmorethanonce.InKrugman'sview,theoverlylooseandloosefiscalandfinancialpoliciesimplementedbytheBushadministrationinthepastfewyearsacceleratedtheburstingofthisroundoffinancialbubbles.

Crisissituation

"Thisissurprising."Krugmansaidexcitedlythefirsttimehelearnedthathewontheprize.Althoughtheworldeconomymayhaveenteredarecession,theoutsideworldhaslongbeenoptimisticaboutbeingapopularcandidatefortheNobelPrize,butthegoddessofluckhasnotbeenabletocometoKrugmanforalongtime."(Afterlearningthenews)Iimmediatelytookashowerandpreparedtoattendthesubsequentpressconference.ThenIwastoobusycallingmywife,parentsandfriendstoannouncethegoodnews,sobusythatIdidn'tevenhaveacupofcoffee."Atthesubsequentpressconferenceoverthephone,Krugmancouldhardlyconcealhisjoyandexcitement.However,thisdidnotpreventhimfrombeingawell-knownscholarfromhissoberjudgmentonthecurrenteconomicsituation.InKrugman'sview,"WearewitnessingacrisisasseriousastheAsianfinancialturmoilofthe1990s.ThiscrisisiscomparabletotheGreatDepressioninsomerespects."Krugmanwasknownintheindustry.Heisalsocommendedforhissuccessfulpredictionsofsomemajorfinancialdisasters.

In1994,underthebackgroundthattheAsianeconomywaswidelyoptimistic,Krugmanwroteanarticlein"Diplomacy"criticizingtheAsianmodel,thinkingthatitwouldonlyrelyonlargeinvestmentwithouttechnologicalinnovationandefficiencyimprovement.Bydoingso,itiseasytoformabubbleeconomy.Duringtheperiodofrapiddevelopmentandprosperity,thereisalreadyadeepcrisislurking,andsoonerorlaterlarge-scaleadjustmentswillbemade.

In1996,KrugmandirectlypredictedtheimminentoutbreakoftheAsianfinancialcrisisinhisbook"PopularInternationalism".

In1997,thecrisisbrokeout.In2000,Krugmanpointedoutinthearticle"EnergyCrisisReappearance"thatanewroundofrisinginternationaloilpriceshascome.

In2001,inacolumninthe"NewYorkTimes",Krugmanonceagainreiteratedhisviews.Sureenough,after2001,internationaloilpricesrosesharply.

InAugust2006,KrugmanwrotethatduetotheskyrocketingpricesoftheUShousingmarketinrecentyears,housingpricesinmanyareashavebeguntofall,andspeculativedemandhasreversed,causingthecurrentmarkettobefloodedwithunsoldrealestate.Moreover,sincethepropertymarkethasbeenthemainengineofUSeconomicgrowthinthepastthreeyears,thereversalofthepropertymarketmeansthattheUnitedStateswillinevitablyexperienceasevererecession.Atpresent,theUShousingpriceshaveshownatrendofoveralldownwardadjustment.

Praisetherescue

KrugmanespeciallypraisedtheboldrescuemeasurestakenbythefinancialleadersoftheworldwhogatheredinWashingtonlastweekend.Comparedtofeelings,heseemedtobemoreshockedlastFriday.AttheG-7FinanceMinistersandCentralBankGovernorsmeetingonthe10th,allcountriesunanimouslyadoptedanactionplanaimedatstabilizingtheglobalfinancialsituation,restoringmarketconfidence,andsupportingeconomicgrowth.G7statedthatthecurrentsituationrequires"urgentandextraordinary"actions.Thememberstatesofthegroupwillcontinuetoworktogethertostabilizefinancialmarketsandrestorecreditflows,therebysupportingglobaleconomicgrowth.Accordingtothisplan,thegroupwilltakedecisiveactionstouse"allavailablemeans"tosupportthosefinancialinstitutionsthatareimportanttothesecurityofthefinancialsystemandpreventthemfromfailing.Thegroupwillalsotakeallnecessarymeasurestounfreezethecreditandmoneymarketsandensurethatbanksandotherfinancialinstitutionshaveextensiveaccesstoliquidityandcapital.

ThespecialmeetingoffinanceministersandcentralbankgovernorsoftheGroupof20countriesalsoconveyedsimilarmessages.ThemeetingemphasizedthattheG20willuniteanddeepencooperation,and"willadoptalleconomicandfinancialmeanstoensurethestabilityandsoundoperationofthefinancialmarket."Theconcreteactionsofvariouscountriesinthefollowingtwodaysalsodemonstratedtheirdeterminationtorescuethemarket.TheFederalReserveandthefourmajorcentralbanksannouncedonthe13ththattheywillprovideunprecedented"uncapped"capitalinjectionstothefinancialsystemtoeasethepressureontheshort-termdollarfinancingmarket.The15countriesintheEurozonealsoadoptedaunifiedfinancialrescueplanlastweekend.MajoreconomiessuchastheUnitedKingdom,Germany,France,andItalyhavesuccessivelylaunchedfinancialrescueprogramstotalinghundredsofbillionsofeuros.